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Wall Street Usually Cuts Its Estimates. This Year, It’s Raising Them.

Each year tends to follow a similar script on Wall Street. Analysts start the year optimistic about how much profit companies will earn, then spend the following quarters trimming those forecasts as actual results come in. Figure 1, which tracks the S&P 500 earnings estimates for each calendar year over…

08/01/26 | Monthly Letter

AI and Geopolitics Continue to Drive Markets

Monthly Market Summary The S&P 500 Index returned -0.1%. Energy led all S&P 500 sectors with a +12.6% return as geopolitical tensions caused oil to trade higher. Financials (+6.2%) was the second-best performing sector, followed by the defensive trio of Real Estate (+2.5%), Health Care (+2.4%), and Consumer Staples (+2.1%).…

07/24/26 | Chart of the Month

Market Forecasts Change, Retirement Plans Shouldn’t

The bond market started this year expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice by year end. Today, it expects a rate hike instead. The chart below captures the reversal. The lines graph the market’s rate forecast for the same stretch of time, from now through early 2027. The…

07/16/26 | Quarterly Letter

2Q 2026 Recap & 3Q 2026 Outlook

Key Updates on the Economy & Markets Stocks staged a strong recovery in Q2, with the S&P 500 gaining +15% and finishing near record highs. The Middle East conflict and oil shock that started in Q1 continued for most of Q2, but oil prices fell as the two sides worked…

07/16/26 | Chart of the Month

What Real-Time Data Says About the Economy

Most economic reports are released with a delay, which means investors are often looking at what happened weeks or even months ago after economists have had time to gather the data. The Federal Reserve’s Weekly Economic Index helps fill that gap by providing a more up-to-date snapshot of economic activity.…

06/01/26 | Monthly Letter

AI and Geopolitics Continue to Drive Markets

Monthly Market Summary The S&P 500 Index gained +5.3% in May and set multiple new all-time highs. Technology led all S&P 500 sectors with a +16.0% return, followed by Consumer Discretionary (+2.6%) and Health Care (+2.5%). However, eight of eleven sectors traded lower, led by Energy (-5.6%), Utilities (-5.1%), and…

05/29/26 | Chart of the Month

3 Financial Planning Questions with Higher Gas Prices

The national average price of a gallon of gasoline has climbed above $4.50, up nearly 50% since the start of the U.S.-Iran conflict in late February. The cause is a global oil supply disruption. Approximately 20% of the world’s oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping route in…

05/04/26 | Monthly Letter

Stocks Set New Highs as Geopolitical Tensions Ease

Monthly Market Summary The S&P 500 Index gained +10.5% in April, recovering its March decline and setting a new high. Communication Services led all S&P 500 sectors with a +18.5% return, followed by Technology (+17.5%) and Consumer Discretionary (+11.7%). Nine of eleven sectors traded higher as stocks recovered from the…

04/22/26 | Chart of the Month

Market Volatility: The Best Days and Worst Days Travel Together

The stock market’s best and worst days tend to arrive together, and the early months of 2026 offered a timely reminder. The S&P 500 fell nearly -10% from its late-January high through the end of March as the U.S.-Iran conflict sent oil prices surging more than +60%. Headlines about the…

04/15/26 | Quarterly Letter

1Q 2026 Recap & 2Q 2026 Outlook

Key Updates on the Economy & Markets The first quarter was eventful for markets. Stocks traded higher to start the year, with the S&P 500 posting a modest gain in January. However, the market traded lower in March due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Strait…

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