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Rising Policy Uncertainty Leads to Increased Market Volatility

Monthly Market Summary The S&P 500 Index returned -0.9%, outperforming the Russell 2000 Index’s -2.3% return. Technology was the top-performing S&P 500 sector, followed by Consumer Staples, Industrials, and Utilities. Energy returned -13.9% as oil prices fell -18.6%. Bonds ended the month unchanged despite intra-month volatility, with the U.S. Bond…

04/30/25 | Chart of the Month

Making Sense of the Tariff Announcement

Trump Administration Introduces New Tariff Measures On April 2nd, the Trump administration unveiled a sweeping set of tariffs. A baseline 10% tariff applies to all imports from all countries unless specific exemptions are granted. Additional “reciprocal tariffs” target approximately 60 countries deemed the worst offenders, based on existing tariffs on…

04/01/25 | Quarterly Letter

1Q 2025 Recap & 2Q 2025 Outlook

Key Updates on the Economy & Markets Stocks fell in the first quarter after two consecutive years of gains exceeding +20%. The year started off strong, with the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high in mid-February. However, sentiment shifted late in February amid rising policy uncertainty in Washington, and…

03/01/25 | Chart of the Month

Understanding the Current Market Selloff

Recap of Year-to-Date Market Performance Stocks started 2025 trading higher but have since pulled back. The S&P 500 has declined more than -8% from its all-time high on February 19th, lowering its year-to-date return to -5% (Figure 1). The Nasdaq 100, an index of technology and growth stocks, is down…

03/01/25 | Monthly Letter

The Market Navigates Economic and Policy Uncertainty in February

February Market Summary The S&P 500 Index returned -1.3%, outperforming the Russell 2000 Index’s -5.2% return. Six of the eleven S&P 500 sectors traded higher, led by defensive sectors. Bonds traded higher, with the U.S. Bond Aggregate delivering a +2.2% total return. Corporate investment-grade bonds produced a +2.4% total return…

02/01/25 | Chart of the Month

2025 Rate Cut Outlook: What’s Keeping the Fed on Hold?

In recent years, the Federal Reserve (Fed) carried out one of the fastest rate-hiking campaigns in history to bring inflation down from a multi-decade high. After holding rates high for over 12 months, the central bank started its current rate-cutting cycle in late 2024, lowering rates by a total of…

02/01/25 | Monthly Letter

Stocks Rally as Market Leadership Shifts in Early 2025

Monthly Market Summary The S&P 500 Index returned +2.7%, marginally outperforming the Russell 2000 Index’s +2.5% return. Seven of the eleven S&P 500 sectors outperformed the index, as AI-related news led to a sell-off in Technology stocks. Corporate investment-grade bonds produced a +0.6% total return as Treasury yields edged lower…

01/01/25 | Quarterly Letter

4Q 2024 Recap & 1Q 2025 Outlook

Key Updates on the Economy & Markets There was no shortage of market-moving events in Q4. The stock market opened the quarter with a slow start in October, but the outcome of the presidential election triggered a broad rally in November, which faded as the year ended. The credit market…

01/01/25 | Chart of the Month

Long-Term Perspective: Understanding How Valuations Impact Portfolio Returns

The S&P 500 has rallied +50% since the start of 2023 and more than +150% from the COVID pandemic low in March 2020. The rally has produced a long list of all-time highs and boosted investment portfolios, but it has made broad market indices more expensive. The S&P 500 currently…

12/01/24 | Chart of the Month

S&P 500 Sets More Than 50 New Highs in 2024

The past two years have been remarkable for investors, with the S&P 500 posting back-to-back gains of over +20%. The chart below takes a closer look at 2024’s price movement and uses yellow shading to mark the days when it closed at an all-time high. At the start of this…

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