News

06/24/25  |  Chart of the Month

Corporate Earnings Off to a Solid Start in 2025

The stock market’s performance is a function of two variables: earnings and valuations. A company generates profits, and investors assign a multiple to those profits, such as 15x or 20x earnings, to determine the company’s valuation. This year, earnings have been in the spotlight as policy uncertainty around tariffs and…

05/24/25  |  Chart of the Month

Understanding the Difference Between Soft and Hard Economic Data

Soft and hard economic data are back in the news as trade policy changes. Soft data, such as surveys, measures sentiment, expectations, intentions, and how respondents feel about the economy. In contrast, hard data measures actual results and activity, such as production, spending, and job growth. While they typically move…

04/30/25  |  Chart of the Month

Making Sense of the Tariff Announcement

Trump Administration Introduces New Tariff Measures On April 2nd, the Trump administration unveiled a sweeping set of tariffs. A baseline 10% tariff applies to all imports from all countries unless specific exemptions are granted. Additional “reciprocal tariffs” target approximately 60 countries deemed the worst offenders, based on existing tariffs on…

03/01/25  |  Chart of the Month

Understanding the Current Market Selloff

Recap of Year-to-Date Market Performance Stocks started 2025 trading higher but have since pulled back. The S&P 500 has declined more than -8% from its all-time high on February 19th, lowering its year-to-date return to -5% (Figure 1). The Nasdaq 100, an index of technology and growth stocks, is down…

02/01/25  |  Chart of the Month

2025 Rate Cut Outlook: What’s Keeping the Fed on Hold?

In recent years, the Federal Reserve (Fed) carried out one of the fastest rate-hiking campaigns in history to bring inflation down from a multi-decade high. After holding rates high for over 12 months, the central bank started its current rate-cutting cycle in late 2024, lowering rates by a total of…

01/01/25  |  Chart of the Month

Long-Term Perspective: Understanding How Valuations Impact Portfolio Returns

The S&P 500 has rallied +50% since the start of 2023 and more than +150% from the COVID pandemic low in March 2020. The rally has produced a long list of all-time highs and boosted investment portfolios, but it has made broad market indices more expensive. The S&P 500 currently…

12/01/24  |  Chart of the Month

S&P 500 Sets More Than 50 New Highs in 2024

The past two years have been remarkable for investors, with the S&P 500 posting back-to-back gains of over +20%. The chart below takes a closer look at 2024’s price movement and uses yellow shading to mark the days when it closed at an all-time high. At the start of this…

11/01/24  |  Chart of the Month

Early Post-Election Takeaways: Comparing 2024 to 2016

The election is over, and global markets are analyzing the outcome and starting to adjust forward market expectations. Republicans are set to control the White House, Senate, and House, but the results are also notable for a historical reason: the president-elect, Donald Trump, is returning to office after a previous…

10/01/24  |  Chart of the Month

Uncharted Territory: Understanding This Economic Cycle

The economy is in uncharted territory. Figure 1 graphs the Leading Economic Index (LEI), which tracks ten data points that tend to change before the overall economy does. Economists monitor the LEI because it includes data that can provide insight into future economic activity, such as unemployment claims, building permits,…

09/01/24  |  Chart of the Month

Investing Based on Politics is a Bad Idea for Your Portfolio

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, Americans are preparing to vote in what polls forecast to be a tight race. Like many investors, you may wonder how the election outcome could affect financial markets and whether you should change your investment strategy. While elected leaders can influence economic growth by…